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chơi game kiếm tiền ios(www.vng.app):Falling growth indicators cause concern

admin2022-09-238

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Output factor: A worker holds a silicon wafer at a fabrication plant in Germany. Global chipmakers are now bracing for a downtrend with growing inventory and shrinking demand. — Bloomberg

THE prospects for the global economy appear to be increasingly challenging, as the risk of recession rises.

Concerns centre on elevated global inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes in some countries and rates staying higher for longer.

Signs of slower demand are seen as economic activities weaken across the United States to Europe and Asia, according to the latest manufacturing and services indicators.

Our recession dashboard flags a 37% risk of global recession, compared with 33% in July, said United Overseas Bank Malaysia senior economist Julia Goh.

Is it possible that as Asean “lives” with Covid-19, it is partially decoupling from the US economic slowdown and potential recession?

Asean is emerging as a defensive harbour, said Maybank Investment Bank in its report, citing factors that include:

> Accommodation and food services, construction and air transport sectors are still below pre-pandemic levels;

> Strengthening intra-Asean tra-de that will partly offset weaker Group of Three and China trade;

> Rising foreign direct investment and shifting manufacturing supply chains to Asean;

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> Elevated energy and food prices benefit energy exporters like Indonesia and Malaysia;

> Less aggressive rate hiking cycle, except in the Philippines and Singapore;

> Relocation of headquarters and talent from Hong Kong, and capital inflows from Greater China on US-China geopolitical rivalry and divergent Covid-19 strategies.

While the balance of risks for Malaysia is tilted to the downside, the economy is still at a decent growth rate of 6.9% for the first half of 2022, with full year growth likely at between 5.3% and 6.3%.

Malaysia’s fiscal deficit has narrowed to RM45bil or 5.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) from RM57.3bil or 7.7% of GDP in the previous corresponding period, largely due to a 16.8% growth in revenue collection.

But policy space is quite limited and the government has to ensure its fiscal sustainability; consumers must improve their financial literacy and businesses must boost their operational efficiencies as well as cashflows, said Employees Provident Fund (EPF) head, economics and research Afzanizam Mohamed Rashid.

The expected global economic slowdown will impact the local economy via slower external demand and easing prices of commodities and energy.

This will dampen domestic demand via lower export income and lower overtime pay for employees in the manufacturing sector, said Socio Economic Research Centre executive director Lee Heng Guie.

Investors’ concerns on global recession can cause volatility in the equity and foreign exchange markets.The recent regional indicators flagged weaknesses in electronics output – global chipmakers are now bracing for a downtrend with growing inventory and shrinking demand amid massive upfront costs.

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